Health care cost of floods: Evidence from Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Using the difference-in-difference (DID) method, this study uses Typhoon Morakot, which occurred in August 2009, as an example to estimate the effect of flooding on health care cost burden. The main data source is the medical claims records of a cohort of three million patients in Taiwan’s National Health Insurance system. By examining flood-related physiological diseases and disaster-related mental illnesses, our results indicate that the increase in outpatient health care costs resulting from the flood caused by the typhoon is approximately NTD 8.95 billion (USD 280 million), equivalent to approximately 69% of the annual special budget for flooding prevention during the period 2006–2019 in Taiwan. Moreover, the increase in outpatient expenditure for mental illnesses is nearly 10 times that of physiological diseases. An important implication of our findings is that the cost of preventing natural disasters, such as floods, can be offset by saving health care costs, particularly for mental illnesses. Our results also suggest that in addition to providing safe drinking water and indoor residual spraying, offering continuous post-disaster mental health services can further save health care expenditures caused by natural disasters.     

两种基因类型的丙肝传染病混合模型的动力学分析

鉴于中国丙肝患者中所含基因类型主要分为2种,且在临床上有急性和慢性之分,为了更好的研究基因类型对丙肝的影响,针对急性和慢性2种基因类型丙肝进行生物数学建模,分析讨论其相应平衡态的存在性及稳定性。结果表明,基本再生数较大的丙肝会长期存在,而基本再生数较小的丙肝会逐渐消亡,当且仅当基本再生数相等时,2种基因类型的丙肝才可能共存。数值模拟分析验证了该结果的正确性。因此,对不同基因类型的患者进行分类治疗是必要的。     

甲泼尼龙与利伐沙班联合治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期合并肺栓塞患者的临床效果

目的探讨甲泼尼龙与利伐沙班联合治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期合并肺栓塞患者的临床效果。方法选取2019年3月至2020年5月江门市中心医院收治的76例慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期合并肺栓塞患者作为研究对象,按随机数字表法分为对照组与观察组,各38例。对照组给予利伐沙班治疗,观察组在对照组基础上联合甲泼尼龙治疗,比较两组临床疗效、血气分析指标及血清心肌肌钙蛋白(cTnⅠ)、凝血功能、不良反应。结果观察组治疗有效率92.11%,高于对照组的73.68%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。治疗前,两组血气分析指标、血清cTnⅠ及凝血功能指标比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);治疗后,观察组动脉血氧分压(PaO₂)高于对照组,动脉血二氧化碳分压(PaCO₂)、cTnⅠ低于对照组,活化部分凝血酶时间(APTT)、凝血酶原时间(PT)、凝血酶时间(TT)短于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组治疗后未出现明显不良反应。结论甲泼尼龙与利伐沙班联合治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期合并肺栓塞能改善血气分析指标和凝血功能,提高临床疗效,且安全性高。     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.     

Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID-19 mortality: Evidence from US sports

Social distancing is important to slow the community spread of infectious disease, but it creates enormous economic and social cost. Thus, it is important to quantify the benefits of different measures. We study the ban of mass gatherings, an intervention with comparably low cost. We exploit exogenous variation in the number of National Basketball Association and National Hockey League games, which arises due to the leagues' predetermined schedules, and the sudden suspension of the 2019–2020 seasons. We find that, among clusters of counties that are adjacent to sports venues, each additional mass gathering increased the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths by 10.3%.     

生产率异质性、服务业“成本病”与经济增长

本文在一个均衡框架下重新构建了产业部门生产率增长对部门价格增长及名义产出增长影响的理论机制，通过产业部门的数据对理论进行实证分析，研究生产率增长较慢的部门是否存在价格攀升过快的服务业“成本病”问题和部门产出增长走向停滞的问题。结果表明，生产率增长缓慢的产业部门价格攀升过快的“成本病”问题在所有行业普遍存在，但行业间具有异质性特征。部门生产率的下降对产出增长具有显著抑制作用，尽管抑制作用会通过提高价格这一中介变量增加产出而有所缓解，但是生产率的下降对产出增长的净效应显著为负。因此，在新时代中国经济结构升级转型的关键时期，要警惕生产率增长缓慢的部门价格攀升过快，但也不必过分忧虑因大力倡导发展生产技术提高生产率使得本部门价格下滑过快、劳动力流失而面临增长停滞的问题。     

基于无损检测技术的白加黑路面病害探测与评价

为更加准确探测白加黑路面的结构层内部隐性病害，依托茂湛高速改扩建项目白加黑路面，采用三维探地雷达技术开展既有路面的病害检测，并结合落锤式弯沉仪进行白加黑路面的结构承载能力测试。结果表明，采用三维探地雷达设备可以清晰识别白加黑路面结构断板、裂缝、脱空、传力杆布设等内部状况信息，能反映出原有路面结构内部各层位病害的总体情况。在多年车辆荷载作用下，白加黑路面的反射裂缝病害比例较高，建议采取注浆、灌缝等养护措施，加强对旧水泥板与沥青层开展稳固与密水处理；水泥路面加铺沥青层后，路顶弯沉值整体变小，有无沥青层的弯沉差值主要与沥青加铺层厚度、模量、老化程度有关。为了更好模拟实际轮载对路面的荷载作用，推荐采用10 t荷载进行板间弯沉差测试，并以弯沉差为0.05 mm以上为处治阈值，进行针对性地补强处理。     

A Dutch disease approach into the premature deindustrialization

We explore the main causes and consequences of the premature deindustrialization phenomena. We argue that local currency overvaluations mainly associated with a surge in capital inflows into the emerging market economies following the deregulation of their capital accounts severely hurt the output share of manufacturing industry. Applying the second generation estimators allowing for cross-section dependency (Augmented Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group), we run a panel data regression model based on a sample of 39 developing countries in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, North America, and Europe from 1960 to 2017. We show that the baseline regression results are robust to different data sets, alternative real exchange rate/deindustrialization measurements, and dynamic model specifications. We find that an overvaluation of 50% which corresponds approximately to one and half standard deviations is associated with a contraction of manufacturing output share as high as 1,25% over the five year period. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the manufacturing competencies which have been eroded by local currency overvaluations in real terms cannot simply be brought back during the undervaluation periods. Hence, the need for a comprehensive industrial policy along with a firm use of capital controls and macroprudential measures given a robust institutional framework comes out as the main policy implication of our results, and they are duly discussed in light of recent developments in the literature.     

普拉克索联合左旋多巴治疗帕金森病患者的临床效果

目的探讨普拉克索联合左旋多巴治疗帕金森病患者的临床效果。方法选取2017年3月至2020年3月辽宁省健康产业集团阜新矿总院收治的帕金森患者82例作为研究对象,随机分为对照组与观察组,各41例。对照组采取单一药物疗法(口服左旋多巴片),观察组采取联合用药方案(口服左旋多巴、普拉克索),比较两组治疗效果。结果用药后,观察组治疗有效率(95.12%)高于对照组(75.61%),差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);用药后,观察组谷胱甘肽(GSH)、超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、谷胱甘肽氧化物酶(GSH-Px)水平高于对照组,但行为能力评分(UPDRSⅠ)评分、日常生活能力评分(UPDRSⅡ)评分、运动能力评分(UPDRSⅢ)评分、运动并发症评分(UPDRSⅣ)评分低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);观察组不良反应发生率低于对照组,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论普拉克索+左旋多巴治疗帕金森疗效确切,可有效控制病情进展,改善病情,且安全可靠。     

乌梅丸抑木扶土辨治厥阴证诸病

"乌梅丸"出自汉代张仲景《伤寒论》,是抑木扶土之经方之一,乌梅丸多用于"久利",历代医家在谨守原方配伍和功用特点的基础上,对本方进行了深入研究,辨证施治,随证化裁,并将其广泛应用于内、妇、儿科等多种疾病,现对乌梅丸基于抑木扶土之辨治诸病思路进行总结,为抑木扶土角度论乌梅丸辨治厥阴病提供思路。